Pappas Calls for U.S. House to Subpoena Prediction Markets, Fully Investigate Corruption and Insider Trading

Today Congressman Chris Pappas (NH-01) called on Congressman James Comer (KY-01), the Chairman of the House Committee on Oversight, to formally open an investigation into corruption and insider trading occurring in online prediction markets by subpoenaing internal records from these markets.

Online prediction markets allow individuals to gamble on the outcomes of a wide variety of real-life events, including sports games, election outcomes, daily stock and commodity price changes, whether certain legislation being considered by Congress will be signed into law, and even geopolitical events such as the likelihood of the United States taking military action against another country or the outcome of diplomatic negotiations. 

In his letter, Pappas highlighted how recent wagers on political and international topics have raised suspicion of insider trading, writing: “As you know there have been a number of suspicious trades made in connection with U.S. and Israeli military operations against Iran... a single trader made nearly $1 million with a 93 percent success rate on wagers predicting unannounced U.S. and Israeli military operations against Iran, placing bets hours before strikes in October 2024, June 2025, and February 2026. A separate group of 38 accounts netted more than $2 million on the February 28 strikes alone, after being preloaded with funds the preceding week. At least 50 newly created accounts placed coordinated bets on a U.S.-Iran ceasefire on April 7, some opened minutes before the announcement.”

He went on to highlight the vested interest of the American people in knowing whether government officials are using these markets in violation of the law and their oaths of office: “The American public has a legitimate interest in knowing whether individuals entrusted with classified national security information have used that access for personal financial gain. A committee investigation, enforced with subpoenas, will include internal records, which are the only means by which the individuals who conducted these trades can be identified and the question of whether these platforms are upholding their responsibilities can be answered. Congress has both the authority and the responsibility to determine whether existing ethics, classification, and financial disclosure laws have been violated, and whether legislative action is necessary to prevent recurrence.”

Pappas concluded by re-emphasizing the importance of House Oversight’s subpoena power, noting: “We cannot fulfill that responsibility without knowing who placed these trades.”

Background:

Pappas supports the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026, which bans members of Congress and government employees from trading on political prediction markets when they have or could easily get inside information through their jobs, and has led the fight to ban Members of Congress from trading stocks and to strengthen ethical standards across all branches of government since entering Congress.

Pappas leads legislation to codify the Office of Congressional Ethics, now called the Office of Congressional Conduct (OCC), the only independent internal watchdog that probes ethical breaches in Congress. 

Pappas has repeatedly broken with his own party in support of a stock trading ban. Following his advocacy in 2022, then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi reversed course and announced legislation to ban stock trading by members of Congress would be considered by the House. Pappas has also fought to change House rules to include a ban on members of Congress trading stocks.

Over the course of the 119th Congress, Pappas has helped introduce the TRUST in Congress Act and the No Getting Rich in Congress Act and supports the bipartisan effort to force a vote on the Restore Trust in Congress Act. He is also a cosponsor of the Fighting Foreign Influence Act. 

Read Pappas’s letter here and below:

Dear Chairman Comer: 

We write to request that the Committee issue subpoenas and open an investigation into apparent corruption and insider trading occurring in online prediction markets. As you know there have been a number of suspicious trades made in connection with U.S. and Israeli military operations against Iran.

We are deeply concerned that individuals with access to sensitive government information have used that access for personal financial gain. For example, a single trader made nearly $1 million with a 93 percent success rate on wagers predicting unannounced U.S. and Israeli military operations against Iran, placing bets hours before strikes in October 2024, June 2025, and February 2026.¹ 

A separate group of 38 accounts netted more than $2 million on the February 28 strikes alone, after being preloaded with funds the preceding week.² At least 50 newly created accounts placed coordinated bets on a U.S.-Iran ceasefire on April 7, some opened minutes before the announcement.³ Israeli authorities have separately indicted two individuals, including a military reservist, for placing Iran-related bets on Polymarket using classified information.⁴

Some of the suspicious trades were reportedly placed on Polymarket Global, the platform's offshore site, which U.S. persons are barred from accessing under the terms of Polymarket's 2022 settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.⁵ The platform’s failure to implement meaningful identity verification or enforce restrictions on U.S. persons raises serious questions about its broader compliance with federal law. A recent case illustrates the seriousness of the issue. In that case a U.S. Army special forces soldier was charged with using classified information to bet on the raid that captured Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro to win $400,000 on the platform, Polymarket identified him and referred the matter to federal authorities, leading to his arrest and criminal charges. 

The American public has a legitimate interest in knowing whether individuals entrusted with classified national security information have used that access for personal financial gain. A committee investigation, enforced with subpoenas, will include internal records, which are the only means by which the individuals who conducted these trades can be identified and the question of whether these platforms are upholding their responsibilities can be answered. Congress has both the authority and the responsibility to determine whether existing ethics, classification, and financial disclosure laws have been violated, and whether legislative action is necessary to prevent recurrence. We cannot fulfill that responsibility without knowing who placed these trades.

Given the important national security implications and possible corruption occurring in these markets, we respectfully request a response to this letter outlining the Committee’s planned approach to this issue no later than May 22, 2026. 

Sincerely,

###